A Paradigm Shift for Selectively Decarbonizing China and Cyprus

Abstract

Record world temperatures and emissions have become the focal point of climate change. China, with a share of 29.3% of CO2 emissions is the world’s top emitter. Its electricity sector accounts for 35% of these emissions. To gain a better appreciation as to the ability of China to decarbonise its electricity sector we have formulated four different scenarios. Primarily they aim to investigate the future emissions and electricity costs of China’s electricity sector along with carbon sinks, until 2050. The study indicates that renewable energy alone cannot meet China’s power needs unless supplemented by fossil fuels. China can attain a net-zero emissions electricity sector only by phasing out coal while renewable energy yields the most expensive electricity.
In Europe, the EU has established a long-term strategy towards net-zero emissions by 2050. Cyprus being a Member State will need to curb its emissions by 55% by year 2030. Central to these decarbonisation efforts is the electricity sector which relies on oil-fired power generation. The island’s transportation and electricity sectors compromise 77% of its total emissions. With a view of meeting the EU emissions goals we will present 4 different scenarios stretching to 2050. Interestingly, our findings reveal that carbon free electricity and transport sectors are possible. Moreover, a 100% electric passenger vehicle fleet could be achieved.
Finally, a traffic and heat emissions dispersion model was used to estimate NOx, PM2.5 and PM10 at the centre of Nicosia. Incorporating actual traffic and weather data, the model simulated all 3 pollutants for a 9-month period. Compared to the measured values, simulated data display a high correlation for all 3 pollutants. Furthermore, we examined various scenarios related to vehicle speed, age, banning diesel and fireplaces, and calculated their impact in human mortality. Our research has demonstrated that NOx related mortality could be decreased by 70% if all diesel passenger and light-duty vehicles are banned in conjunction with Euro 6 vehicles. Lastly, for PM2.5 the most promising policy is to phase out fireplaces which resulted to 25% reduction of premature deaths.

Speaker’s bio:

Mr. Evangelos Demetriou is currently a PhD candidate in Oil, Gas and Energy Engineering, at the University of Nicosia and works as an Engineer at the Department of Urban Planning. His doctoral research focuses on the energy, the electricity and the transportation sectors. Evangelos investigations have analysed different scenarios associated with full decarbonization of the future energy mix, the role of renewables, electric power storage and carbon removal technologies. In parallel, Evangelos is interested in climate change, electricity and transportation policy and carbon emissions. He holds a Civil Engineering degree from the National and Technical University of Athens (NTUA) with a grade of 7.8/10.

The talk to be delivered in English will held face-to-face and will be lived streamed via WebEx:
www.webex.com; Link: https://bit.ly/2ZV9GEO; Meeting number: 27384116849; Meeting Pass: PRnTuwpi533. For more info please visit the Marine & Carbon Lab: www.carbonlab.eu

Venue/date: Conf. Room 102, RTB, U. of Nicosia; Wed., Nov. 10th, 2021. Time: 15:30-16:30.


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